The terms map and compass may raise the expectation that there is a set route into the future. But when on unknown territory an out-of-date map isn’t necessarily very helpful. It is not uncommon for entire industries to use extrapolation to forecast ­future ­markets and trends. In times of evolutionary development this may even work. However, as soon as these developments are ­dis­rupted by unexpected events the method may cost a company significant market share and, in the worst case, even lead to ruin.

The Telco industry is going through a period of change at the end of which even the name telecommunications will be put into question. Now is the time to start thinking about an appropriate label for the market which is evolving out of four different segments (see figure 1).





A map which simply extrapolates past years leads into a dead end. We have to change the instruments and re-learn the art of navigation. But, before this can be done, each market player has to determine what role they will (or wish to) play in the markets of the future. Unfortunately there is more than one option. In a changing market companies not only have to rethink the allocation of their resources, but also have to decide which of their present and future core competences they should concentrate on. Target definition comes before the route description. If this rule is ignored then it is quite possible that programs to improve efficiency will just speed up the journey in the wrong direction. A concentration on traditional services while ignoring potential new revenue sources may well lead to downhill developments and the company will end up using all its energy and resources on downsizing.


Are there any guidelines for navigation in these turbulent times? It is this question which we try to answer in this issue of the DMR. So much is clear from the start: there is no one single answer. Instead there are a number of decision-making and orientation aids available. In order to identify them we have first to analyze the static parameters and the underlying paradigm shifts of the current developments.


One of the first questions to ask is: What is so special about the current situation? Here we spoke to Andy Brauer, CTO of Business Connexion in South Africa, about the changes that can presently be seen in the industry from the (South) African perspective.
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