A highly qualified meteorologist is given approximately two minutes at the end of the news to make his forecast. In this short time, he presents a summary of his analysis of the weather, one of the most complex systems in existence. His presentation is a rigorous simplification, focused on the main aspects that will interest the viewers and using skillful rhetoric – nowadays often to be classified as highly professional entertainment – to make sure that he is understood. Considering the thousands of years during which the elements have been observed, the hundreds of weather proverbs in our common heritage, the massive data processing centers used for modern meteorology, all those weather satellites way out in orbit, and the intense discussion of today’s weather at every water cooler, the output might seem rather meager. There may be a fairly accurate prediction as to what the weather will be like on the weekend. But whether the summer will be wet or whether there will be enough snow at Christmas for skiing – no serious weather expert would risk an assessment.  But even this limited forecasting ability is incredibly useful in our day-to-day lives. Moreover, we accept without question the fact that the forecast for the coming weekend will change as the weekend approaches. The main expectation is that it will become increasingly accurate. Despite the remaining inaccuracies, the complex computer models and measurement instruments ensure that the forecast is as good as it can be. We do not have to understand the models or instruments behind the forecast – that is the meteorologists’ job. The weatherman at the end of the news is their spokesperson – the one responsible for professionally presenting their results.  

The function of a transformation manager in an organization is similar, and spinning out the analogy with weather forecasting can help clarify the role played by the transformation manager during times of complex change. Transformation management is the meteorology of organizational change. It is responsible for the forecasting and control of change processes within the company. Its benefits are not reduced by the occasional errors which are a consequence of the complexity of the system in question – just as in weather forecasting.